By definition, “black swans” defy foresight. As most readers are aware, a black swan event, as popularised by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, is one that is extremely rare, unexpected and has an outsized impact. Their inherent unpredictability means they threaten to derail not only unwary investors, but anyone bold enough to try predicting them.
A year ago, our black swan projections for 2025 generated considerable debate. With US regime change looming, investors were eager to speculate on potential outcomes. Many offered their own views. Others urged us to include a probability matrix. What, they asked, was the likelihood of any of these events actually occurring?
One reader even wondered, somewhat euphemistically, whether it might be possible to identify a black swan in its infancy — a “black cygnet”.
Our 2026 black swan outlook is presented below. As before, our intention is not to cast a pall of New Year doom and gloom, but to alert investors to potential
