“Every government intervention in the marketplace creates unintended consequences, which lead to calls for further government interventions.” — Ludwig von Mises

The past three years have been quite the rollercoaster of market interventions. In 2020, pandemic lockdowns took U.S. unemployment to Depression-era levels virtually overnight. Fiscal and monetary stimulus came to the rescue, sending unemployment to historical lows and asset prices to new highs. As the unintended consequence of inflation became apparent, the Federal Reserve was forced to quickly pivot from the easiest monetary policy on record to the fastest pace of rate hikes in 40 years. Investors are certainly feeling the whiplash.

When markets are this volatile, the most extreme predictions tend to get the most airtime. They also tend not to age well. For instance, the pandemic was not followed by an L-shaped recovery, and the “Roaring ’20s” roared much less after the first rate