CBRE continues to lower its GDP growth outlook

CBRE Hotels Research has released its report on current demand trends, as well as fundamentals by segment, location type and chain scale. The report also provides a brief update on short-term rental, group business, and capital market trends, the transaction market, the impact of virtual work and the outlook for office vacancy.

Key Takeaways

CBRE calls for a mild recession in 2023. GDP is expected to be flat in 2023 with negative growth in first half 2023 and positive growth in second half 2023. Unemployment remains low but is expected to increase. Full employment and a worker shortage will lead to further wage pressures. CBRE expects higher and more persistent inflation. Inflation is expected to remain above the long-run average of 3.3 percent until 2024. August RevPAR weakens. Most chain scales and location types saw a pullback relative to 2019. TSA throughput data remains above 90 percent of 2019 post Labor