U.S. office vacancy projections remain virtually unchanged in a revised forecast from CoStar.
After reaching a cyclical peak in mid-2025 before lowering slightly by the end of the year, the near-term U.S. office outlook now anticipates stable vacancy (14.1 percent) through the end of 2026, followed by a gradual decline that would bring the headline rate near 13 percent by 2030.
“The revised forecast outlook takes a somewhat more optimistic long-term view than the previous forecast, which called for a continued rise in vacancy until late 2026, remaining well above 13 percent through the end of the decade,” says Phil Mobley, national director of office analytics at CoStar Group. “The shift reflects recovering tenant demand during the back half of 2025, driven by a stabilization in per-worker space needs even as hiring in the traditional knowledge industries continued to lag.”
Compared with prior expectations, the revised house view forecast calls for rough
