U.S. industrial vacancy is projected to rise in 2026, while average annual rent growth is expected to remain steady, according to a revised forecast from CoStar, a global provider of online real estate marketplaces, information and analytics in the property markets.
Despite expectations that demand will increase slightly from 2025 levels, the national industrial vacancy rate is forecast to rise from its current level (7.5 percent) to 7.8 percent by the end of 2026, before declining through 2027. This modest near-term rise in vacancy, driven by ongoing supply additions, is projected to pull rent growth closer to 1.0 percent before reaccelerating.
Average annual rent growth over the 2026–2027 period is forecasted at 2.2 percent, in line with previous expectations. An inflection in the vacancy trend by the end of 2026 is expected to push annual rent growth higher to 2.8 percent by the end of 2027, which would still underperform the pre-pandemic five-year average.
