Market cycles rarely repeat identically, but they often echo in ways that are too loud to ignore. Indeed, investors have seen this movie before, even if the cast has changed.
The public equity market today and the one that peaked in March 2000 rhyme in their structure rather than their specifics. Both cycles were built on transformative technology, the commercial internet then and artificial intelligence today. In each case, a powerful narrative attracted an extraordinary concentration of capital, lifted valuations beyond long-term averages, and rewarded, in outsized fashion, a narrow set of leaders who drove the broader market.
What followed in the early 2000s was a steep and severe correction that caused a rotation of capital into real estate and a period of outperformance for property market investors. Current indicators for the stock market point to a late-cycle, top-of-range environment that shares the signature of the prior peak.
Investors seeking to maxim
