I have been in this business since 1979, which means I have now watched four full property market cycles complete themselves and a fifth attempt to find its footing. That tenure has taught me very little about predicting when markets turn. It has taught me a great deal about what happens to people who assumed markets would not.
Lately I have been hearing a consistent message from the private wealth community, and I want to state it fairly, because it is a reasonable position held by thoughtful professionals. It goes like this: The classic 60/40 portfolio has delivered mid-teens returns for three years running — roughly 16 percent in 2023, nearly 17 percent in 2024 and about 15 percent in 2025, by Morningstar’s measure. That is roughly double the two-decade average for that allocation.
Private real estate, meanwhile, has just lived through its worst stretch since the global financial crisis, with property values in the NCREIF open-end core fund index falling nearly
