I’ve been asked a version of this question a lot lately: “Have you ever seen fundamentals this good in senior housing?” I’m not someone who likes to sensationalize things, but the honest answer is “no.” In the more than two decades I’ve spent in this sector, going back to 1999, there has always been a catch. Demand would be growing, but supply grew faster. Things would be improving, and then COVID-19 hit. There was always some offsetting force. Right now, for the first time in my career, I don’t see one.
Start with where the capital is going. The bullseye in senior housing right now is the combination of independent living, assisted living and memory care, especially when all three sit on the same campus or in the same building. There’s also real appetite for active adult communities, the zero-care end of the spectrum, but that segment simply doesn’t have enough product yet to absorb all the interest pointed at it. If we’re having this conversation again
