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Gold versus oil: History often rhymes in natural resource markets
- February 1, 2026: Vol. 13, Number 2

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Gold versus oil: History often rhymes in natural resource markets

by Leigh Goehring and Adam Rozencwajg

We spent the early days of October zig-zagging across New Zealand and Australia, where every meeting seemed to begin — and often end — with the same subject. Gold, gold and more gold. The fever was unmistakable. With the metal sailing through record highs in 2024 and 2025, investors wanted reassurance, explanation, prediction — anything that might make the ascent feel less like scaling a sheer rock wall without a rope.

For three years we had argued that a major gold bull market was approaching. Weakness in the metal or in gold equities, we insisted, was not a warning to sell but an invitation to buy. And those who accepted that invitation were rewarded handsomely.

Back in the fourth quarter of 2022, we were already telling readers the next leg of the bull market was drawing close. A year later, in the second quarter of 2023, with the turn still nine months away, we imagined a dinner party set in December 2029. Two groups of guests animated the scene. One group to

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