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Electric trucks are reaching a tipping point
- June 1, 2022: Vol. 9, Number 6

Electric trucks are reaching a tipping point

by Emily Porter

Popular passenger pickup trucks like the Ford F-150 aren’t the only thing going electric, a large portion of medium- and heavy-duty (MHD) trucks in California and New York are currently electrifiable, meaning that today’s fossil-fuel-powered rigs could be replaced with EVs available now or expected in the coming year.

This is huge news. MHD trucks alone are responsible for close to 25 percent of all on-road transportation emissions. Most of these trucks are used to move freight around the country, covering some 275 billion miles and moving 10 billion tons of goods each year. This is only going to grow, as demand for freight is expected to increase over the coming decades. Although these trucks are critically important to the national economy, we must decrease their emissions. Electrification is a great solution.

So far, MHD trucking fleets around the United States have committed to deploying over 140,000 electric trucks, and there are more than 50 electric MHD truck models available around the country.

Trucks are electrifiable if they travel fewer than 300 miles between trips to their home bases. Today, in the early stages of trucking electrification, public and/or shared truck charging is not widely available, so truck charging will largely take place at a truck’s home base. As such, trucks need to visit their home bases regularly to be considered electrifiable.

Further, electric truck range is currently limited to about 250 miles, with 300-plus mile ranges expected by the end of 2022. Numerous vehicle manufacturers are working on second and third generations of their electric trucks, which will have increased ranges. The latest generation of the Volvo VNR electric has a range of 275 miles, and the Nikola Motors TRE truck has an expected range of 350 miles.

Trucking electrification will come faster than many may anticipate. Analysts in this space have traditionally underestimated the cost-effectiveness of new wind and solar technology, and now EV technology is showing a similar curve. Plus, the total cost of ownership of these vehicles will dramatically improve as production gains economies of scale, has already been seen with light-duty passenger vehicles.

Today, electric trucks generally weigh more than their diesel counterparts. In some cases, this may impact the amount of cargo that a given truck can carry, due to federal highway weight limits. As a short-term solution, some states have increased this weight limit for electric trucks. Additionally, the rapid improvements in battery technology over the past decade have led to batteries with higher cell energy density and lower pack weight at lower costs. These improvements mean that electric trucks with longer ranges and lower weights are on the horizon.

Today, although a large number of trucks can be electrified with electric trucks that are already on the market, this requires the participation and support of numerous key players, including fleet operators, truck manufacturers and electric utilities. The technological capabilities of these electric trucks are continually improving. However, fleets and utilities need support to enable rapid trucking electrification. For fleets, managing electric trucks represents a steep learning curve. Utilities can support truck electrification by offering fleet customers free or low-cost advisory services to co-develop charging strategies that minimize overall charging costs, which will benefit the grid and fleets.

Emily Porter is a senior associate at RMI, a clean-energy think tank. This story was excerpted, with permission, from the organization’s website and can be read in its entirety at this link: www.rmi.org/research

 

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