The world is experiencing the largest oil supply disruption ever recorded, and financial markets are barely reacting. That is the stark conclusion of Goehring & Rozencwajg’s first-quarter 2026 market commentary, published by the natural resource investment firm. Managing partners Leigh Goehring and Adam Rozencwajg argue investors are dangerously underestimating the consequences of the Strait of Hormuz closure — and a severe reckoning may be approaching.
Operation Epic Fury, a joint U.S.-Israel military campaign launched Feb. 28, triggered the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow chokepoint through which roughly 20 million barrels of crude oil flow every day. Even accounting for bypass pipelines that have absorbed some diverted supply, the firm estimates about 15 million barrels per day — roughly one-fifth of global seaborne crude shipments — have been disrupted for more than 76 days, as of the report’s publication. In absolute terms, that trans
