- February 1, 2016: Vol. 3, Number 2

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Barrel Politics: An assessment of Iran

by Jeff Currie

I think it’s important to separate the Iranian nuclear deal in terms of a timeline involved to actually get the sanctions lifted from the impact that Iran is likely to have on the markets should the sanctions actually be lifted and the deal implemented.

The first thing I want to emphasize is that this nuclear deal does not impact the U.S. embargo on Iran with trade and other types of activities. So it’s really focused to the more recent sanctions, not the existing sanctions.

So with that, let’s talk about the potential impact that Iran poses. Longer term, it’s an enormous resource opportunity. If you go back to the 1970s, Iran was producing 6 million barrels of oil per day and was one of the very largest oil producers in the world. Now when we think about that opportunity on a longer-term basis, it’s unlikely to materialize in the very immediate term.

There are three sources of supply that can come online from Iran. First is what we ca

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