Tampa is predicted to be the hottest U.S. housing market during the current year, with Jacksonville, Raleigh, San Antonio and Charlotte rounding out the top five — each buoyed by a combination of strong forecasted home value growth, high job growth, fast-moving inventory and plentiful likely buyers, according to Zillow’s annual ranking. Additionally, these markets have historically not been particularly sensitive to rising mortgage interest rates or a slowing stock market, two risk factors for housing.
Tampa is expected to rise from fourth-fastest home value growth in 2021 to fastest in 2022, Raleigh from third to second and Jacksonville from seventh to third. Last year’s hottest market, Austin, fell to No. 10 this year.
Other top 10 markets are Atlanta, Nashville, Orlando and Phoenix.
The coolest markets of 2022 are expected to be New York, Milwaukee, San Francisco, Chicago, and San Jose.
The method used to rank the housing markets included the following considerations:
- Forecasted annual home value appreciation in November 2022
- Forecasted acceleration in home value appreciation, November 2021 to November 2022
- Standardized listing days per home, January 2021 through November 2021
- Two-year change in total non-farm employment per two-year residential building permit total
- Projected change in owner households, 2021–2022
Home value growth in 2021 consistently broke records, both nationally and in many local markets, according to Zillow, fueled by historically low mortgage interest rates, demographic shifts and pandemic-influenced decisions about lifestyle.
Demographically, the boomer tide in the for-sale housing market is expected to continue to rise for at least the next eight years, the report says, and younger millennials will be hitting first-time home buying age at about the same time, meaning the 2020s will be a period of sustained underlying demand in the housing market.
Among the risk factors facing the market are rising mortgage interest rates, making home loans more expensive. This would restrict inventory accessible in the most expensive markets, the report says, potentially driving up competition for the lowest-priced homes.
Read the complete Zillow report here.