The U.S. economy is experiencing one of the longest expansion periods post-WWII, but cautionary signs are warning of a potential downturn on the horizon.
Economist Dr. Lawrence Souza of Johnson Souza Group, Inc. and Pillar6 Advisors says the average recovery/growth period usually last seven years, and we are currently into the 10th year of expansion. But, he notes, you have to put this into perspective. The 2008–2010 recession was twice as deep and twice as long as any other recession.
On a global basis, Dr. Souza says economies are starting to slow significantly and some countries are falling into recession. In addition, we are starting to see negative interest rates introduced in a lot of those countries, which point to expected disinflation or deflation going forward. And we have seen an inversion of the yield curve, a situation where short-term Treasury securities have higher interest rates than long-term Treasury securities.
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