Russell Investments’ strategists continue to expect a recession for the slowing U.S. economy, though they anticipate a delay until 2024 as investor enthusiasm for artificial intelligence and resilient economic growth continue to support stocks in the near term.
“Forward-looking recession indicators are all flashing warning signs, while measures of real economic activity such as jobs growth and household spending are only gradually moderating,” said Andrew Pease, global head of investment strategy at Russell Investments. “This creeping slowdown in the United States seems likely to persist for a few more months.”
Pease believes a later recession could be milder since inflation should have fallen by enough at that point to allow the U.S. Federal Reserve to ease aggressively. A recession beginning in 2023 while inflation is still above the Fed’s target would limit the pace of easing.
Pease added that most other major economies are also slowing and at ris
