Adam Slater, lead economist, at Oxford Economics, wrote in a recent blog that there needs to be caution about the expected uplift to economy-wide productivity and growth of the advancements of artificial intelligence (AI).
Slater examines historical episodes that suggest several reasons to be cautious about the productivity-boosting potential of AI:
In some cases, such as post-war Europe, the productivity gains linked to new technology resulted from unique historical circumstances.
The positive impact of new technologies on productivity was sometimes modest, and some new technologies failed to deliver any boost at all.
There was often a lengthy gap between the invention of new technologies and any significant impact on growth — sometimes decades.
In some cases, productivity gains from new technologies varied widely across economies.
The boost to productivity was sometimes not permanent, wearing off after a relatively short pe