The latest edition of The Chief Economist from BGO notes that while economic uncertainty tied to shifting trade policy has eased, a new challenge has emerged due to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown. With limited access to key federal data, analysts are relying more heavily on private sources and select public metrics to gauge economic conditions. So far, these indicators suggest that the economy remains relatively cool, with soft labor demand, steadier housing sentiment, and supportive financial markets driven in part by the AI sector. Despite this slowdown, commercial real estate continues to show stabilizing fundamentals across most property types, though office conditions remain the most strained. Overall, capital markets are gradually recovering, with rising transaction activity and total returns improving even as some distress reappears in the debt market
