Research has found that in 2018, 211 gigawatts (GW) of existing (end of 2017) U.S. coal capacity, or 74 percent of the national fleet, was at risk from local wind or solar that could provide the same amount of electricity more cheaply, according to a report released from Vibrant Clean Energy and Energy Innovation, a California nonprofit that advances policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. By 2025, at-risk coal increases to 246 GW.
Nearly all coal plants in the Southeast have become substantially at risk to replacement by solar in 2025. The report shows North Carolina, Florida, Georgia and Tennessee have the highest projections for coal plants being “substantially at risk” of replacement with cheaper nearby renewables by 2025.
Furthermore in 2018, 94 GW of existing U.S. coal capacity was deemed substantially at risk from new local wind and solar that could undercut ongoing costs of existing coal by at least 25 percent. By 2025, substantially at risk coal increases to 140 GW — almost half the U.S. fleet — even as federal renewable energy tax credits phase out. Given uncertainties in publicly available coal cost data, the tier of coal plants “substantially at risk” could, with high confidence, be replaced with renewable energy at an immediate cost savings.
The research demonstrates how it’s increasingly more expensive to operate existing coal plants than build clean energy alternatives. The study found that, in theory, wind and solar could today replace nearly three-quarters of the nation’s coal plants at an immediate saving.
To read the report, click here.