Oxford Economics has released its big questions report on China and macro policies.
What can we expect from this spring's Two Sessions?
Oxford Economics expect officials to realistically stake their growth target at around 4.5 percent in 2024 — a more sustainable, though likely still above-potential, pace than in 2023. Risks to its baseline forecast are tilted to the upside, as fiscal easing could prove more forthcoming and the poor performance of exports could improve.
There are clear signals of official appetite for strong stimulus. Recent official rhetoric stressed further “proactive” policies, with implementation focused on “improving quality and efficiency” and strengthening “financial sustainability” (