CBRE has released a new brief, Private Credit Stress: Contained or Contagious?, examining whether current pressures in private credit could spill into commercial real estate (CRE). The firm said stress remains largely contained and concentrated in corporate direct lending, with limited direct risk to CRE, though indirect effects could emerge if bank credit tightens or investor confidence weakens ahead of a significant 2026 maturity wall.
CBRE noted that alternative lenders, including CRE debt funds and mortgage REITs, accounted for 40 percent of non-agency loan closings in fourth quarter 2025, making them a significant source of bridge, mezzanine and transitional financing.
The report highlighted a more than $800 billion commercial real estate maturity wall in 2026, which could create refinancing challenges if lending capacity contracts.
CBRE said current private credit conditions differ significantly from those s
