Aberdeen Investments has published its Q2 2026 Real Estate Houseview, assessing the implications of the Middle East conflict on the macroeconomic environment and outlook for real estate across the United Kingdom and Europe.
The latest outbreak of geopolitical risk marks a significant inflection point for markets. Rising oil prices, heightened inflation risks and increased interest-rate volatility are reshaping expectations for growth and monetary policy, creating a much more uncertain near-term environment for investors.
While real estate is better placed than during previous energy-driven shocks, the Middle East conflict has materially shifted the balance of risk, reinforcing the need for discipline, selectivity and a strong focus on income durability.
Aberdeen’s central base-case scenario assumes high oil prices persist through the near term before easing later in the year. However, the probability of more adverse outcomes, including a prolonged su
