For 2025, the short story is that the world’s major global central banks, including the Federal Reserve, will extend monetary easing and migrate to lower interest rates. That is always balm for investors of all stripes, including those committed to real assets.
In the United States, the long-predicted economic recession in 2024 never happened, with the economy chugging ahead moderately as inflation generally cooled. The expectation is for fourth quarter 2024 to experience GDP growth of 2 percent, and for 2025 GDP to average about 1.8 percent for year, according to S&P Global.
“The Fed looks set to embark on a steady series of interest-rate cuts — we have penciled in policy rates to reach the terminal rate of 3.00 percent to 3.25 percent by the end of 2025, with risks in both directions,” advised S&P Global, in late 2024. The S&P prediction, if fulfilled, means the Fed will cut another 200 basis points from its policy interest rate next year.