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Commodities - JULY 14, 2021

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Improving supply should dampen metals prices

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Metals supply has been slower to recover from the pandemic than demand, with disruption to supply chains, social distancing, and higher shipping costs all contributing. Consequently, prices have surged over the past year as many markets are in deficit, according to Oxford Economics.

Copper is up around 20 percent since the start of the year. Prices have been driven by an acceleration in demand from China and the OECD area as lockdowns eased, while the supply of base metals has been hampered by COVID-related disruption across South America. But the problems affecting copper mines will improve by the end of the year.

Global steel prices have reached new record highs each month. U.S. hot-rolled coil is up by over 75 percent since the start of the year, driven by shortages. However, steel prices are expected to gradually fall from fourth quarter on, as steel production in the United States and the European Union will be back to pre-pandemic levels, reducing tightness. In c

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