As we go to press, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, disrupting the transport of roughly 20 percent of global oil production and a similar share of seaborne liquid natural gas (LNG) supply. In absolute terms, this represents about 20 million barrels per day of crude oil and about 10 billion cubic feet per day of LNG.
By the metric that ultimately matters most to energy markets — daily physical volume — the disruption may already rank as the largest shock the industry has ever experienced. The consequences have been immediate: Refiners around the world have begun scrambling for alternative crude supplies, often at sharply higher prices.
China responded quickly by imposing export restrictions on refined petroleum products on March 11, seeking to safeguard its own domestic supply. As rising U.S. shale production has dramatically reduced American reliance on imported oil, China has emerged as the world’s dominant crude importer by a considerable margi
