Research Reports

Artificial intelligence (AI) represents the latest in a long line of general-purpose technologies that reshape economies not through a single, linear shock, but through gradual adoption, uneven productivity gains and deep compositional change. History suggests that such transitions are rarely smooth and inherently challenging to forecast with certainty. Past technological revolutions—from electrification to the computer age to the internet—were characterized by rapid early investment, uneven firm-level adoption, delayed aggregate productivity gains and periods of financial excess followed by adjustment. AI appears poised to follow a similar path, yet with potentially greater uncertainty about the timing, magnitude and scope of economic impacts, and thus the implications for commercial real estate (CRE). This paper documents how Cushman & Wakefield incorporates explicit assumptions about AI into its CRE outlook using a scenario-based framework. Rather than attempting to forecast “how AI evolves” itself, the framework focuses on how firms respond to AI under different adoption, productivity and monetization regimes, and how those responses may translate into macroeconomic outcomes, space demand and capital market dynamics. Notably, these AI scenarios do not exist in a vacuum; rather, their assumptions are integrated into our standard “House View” forecast process and therefore reflect our full set of macro views on key themes such as monetary policy, tariffs, the Middle East, etc. This macro view complements (and is consistent with) our ongoing monitoring of micro-property trends using our AI Impact Barometers and Sector Foresight series. Taken holistically, our AI Impact series provides a comprehensive set of data for stakeholders to monitor and strategize around how AI will influence property outcomes over near- and long-term time horizons.

History will remember 2025 as the year an old order ended and a new one began. Many of the foundational principles of economics, politics, and commerce that have shaped modern investing have been ripped up or rewritten. The post-war liberal world order – characterized by multilateral trade, international rule of law, and global stability – has officially given way to a more unpredictable, multi-polar reality. Within the U.S., long-standing structural mainstays like central bank independence and an expanding labor force are no longer a given. Even the value of a college degree is being questioned as artificial intelligence upends entire industries and occupations. If today’s rapid pace of change seems dizzying, grab a seat and hold on: it only accelerates from here. Predicting the future in this environment is difficult, but we still believe it is our task to try. Each year we make predictions on 10 major themes affecting the commercial real estate industry, attempting to identify the trends and data points that we believe are most relevant to real estate investors today. Last year we did pretty well, and you can see a full analysis of how we fared in our “2025 Scorecard” at the end of this piece. But first, download the full report for our top 10 predictions for 2026.

In March 2025, AEW published Searching for Gold, arguing that private commercial real estate credit offered a compelling structural advantage within private credit. Twelve months later, evolving market conditions have only sharpened that case. In Searching for Gold: Capital Preservation in the Next Phase of Private Credit, AEW revisits the thesis through today’s lens examining the mounting stress in U.S. direct lending, the implications for portfolio construction, and why asset-based lending against core real estate may enter this period from a fundamentally different position. This follow-on is not about revisiting first principles. It’s about what has changed—and what matters now for investors focused on downside protection, recovery outcomes, and resilience across the cycle.

Concerns around the commercial real estate “wall of maturities” have dominated investor discourse as nearly $900 billion of loans come due in 2026. Headlines often imply a systemic refinancing crisis—but recent outcomes and detailed market data tell a more nuanced story.Principal's latest research moves beyond broad narratives to assess refinancing risk across property types, markets, and origination vintages. Using a capital gap framework and market‑level dispersion analysis, Principal finds that refinancing stress is real, but highly concentrated—driven by a relatively small subset of markets and assets rather than a uniform breakdown across CRE. This research provides investors a clearer, data‑driven lens for navigating the upcoming maturity wave and supports more selective, informed capital allocation decisions.

Data centers have rapidly moved from a niche real estate subsector to a critical pillar of the global economy. Driven by cloud computing, artificial intelligence (AI), digitalization, and onshoring of advanced manufacturing, demand for data center capacity has continued to accelerate globally. At the same time, the sector faces unprecedented constraints, most notably access to power, transmission infrastructure, land, and specialized labor. This paper explores five key themes shaping today’s data center investment landscape: 1) Whether current demand reflects a durable structural trend or an emerging AI bubble, 2) how data centers are powered, and why power availability is now the binding constraint, 3) why all data centers are not created equal, 4) what debt markets are signaling about risk, resilience, and capital structure, and 5) whether data centers represent the convergence of real estate and infrastructure into a new hybrid asset class. While volatility and uncertainty persist, our assessment is that data centers, particularly those located in high-quality markets, supported by stable power access, and aligned with long-term cloud demand, remain strategically compelling investments in a capacity-constrained world.

Evaluate real estate investment opportunities on the horizon in European markets with our bi-annual sector reports, featuring: cross-quadrant perspectives from our real estate investment professionals, current conditions and outlooks for core real estate sectors, and non-traditional sectors such as data centers.

Evaluate real estate investment opportunities on the horizon in U.S. markets with our bi-annual sector reports, featuring: cross-quadrant perspectives from our real estate investment professionals, current conditions and outlooks for core real estate sectors, and non-traditional sectors such as data centers.

AI is redistributing occupier demand for quality assets, accelerating a widening gap between high-specification, infrastructure-ready assets and commoditized space that is facing pressure. A clear ‘flight to quality’ trend is emerging as occupiers become more selective with AI-driven requirements. For investors, this reinforces a selective investment approach, where core capital should prioritise office and business parks with enduring demand visibility, while value-add opportunities can unlock relevance through asset repositioning.

Swiss real estate saw robust demand in 2025 and remains attractive in 2026, supported by stable cash flows, diversification advantages, and its defensive role in volatile market conditions. Residential demand remains strong. While the supply side recovers, housing remains scarce, shown in continuously falling vacancies and rising rents. Switzerland’s resilient economy also underpins selective opportunities in commercial real estate through active asset management despite global headwinds.

Industrial real estate was once widely considered an undifferentiated asset class, though in recent years has grown into a highly nuanced and segmented sector of commercial real estate. In the post-COVID investment landscape “small-bay industrial” grew as a household term, gaining popularity among investors for its economic resilience and alignment with growth industries like e-commerce, manufacturing and technology. Despite this growing interest the segment still remains unclear to many, largely due to a lack of available small-bay data and the operational complexity required to manage large small-bay portfolios—creating very few new entrants to the space. At the same time, mid- and large-bay industrial assets have continued to evolve separately, each offering distinct characteristics, risk profiles, and use cases. Together, these segments form the modern industrial landscape, differentiated by building size, unit configuration, and tenant composition.