Research Reports

Global real estate returns positive last seven quarters. Values are rebounding in most markets. Transaction volumes are picking up. Read more about the current trends.

After years of correction and normalization, the U.S. self-storage sector is showing all the hallmarks of an early-cycle recovery. Supply is at its tightest in over a decade, property values have stabilized following a significant repricing period, and a recovering housing market could unlock a new wave of demand. Nuveen Real Estate's research examines why 2026 may represent a compelling inflection point for investors — and why the window for early-cycle positioning may not stay open for long.

The demographic tide is turning — and investors should take notice. We believe the senior housing sector is entering one of the most compelling investment windows in a generation. While investor enthusiasm during the last cycle was material, many market participants moved too early — ahead of the true demand wave that is now beginning to crest

Global real estate stabilizes with seven consecutive quarters of positive returns as transaction activity strengthens. U.S. returns positive for last seven quarters amid improving values. The European real estate market entered 2026 with improving fundamentals, stabilizing values and broadening transaction activity. In Asia Pacific, investment activity carried the strong momentum established in the preceding year into Q1 2026.

The U.S. light industrial sector entered 2026 with renewed momentum, supported by resilient small-bay fundamentals, improving capital markets activity, and durable long-term demand drivers. While broader commercial real estate sectors continue to navigate elevated interest rates and economic uncertainty, multi-tenant light industrial has remained one of the most fundamentally sound and operationally resilient asset classes in the market. In particular, multi-tenant light industrial properties continue to outperform larger warehouse product across nearly every key metric—from availability and rental growth to leasing demand and investor interest.

Artificial intelligence (AI) represents the latest in a long line of general-purpose technologies that reshape economies not through a single, linear shock, but through gradual adoption, uneven productivity gains and deep compositional change. History suggests that such transitions are rarely smooth and inherently challenging to forecast with certainty. Past technological revolutions—from electrification to the computer age to the internet—were characterized by rapid early investment, uneven firm-level adoption, delayed aggregate productivity gains and periods of financial excess followed by adjustment. AI appears poised to follow a similar path, yet with potentially greater uncertainty about the timing, magnitude and scope of economic impacts, and thus the implications for commercial real estate (CRE). This paper documents how Cushman & Wakefield incorporates explicit assumptions about AI into its CRE outlook using a scenario-based framework. Rather than attempting to forecast “how AI evolves” itself, the framework focuses on how firms respond to AI under different adoption, productivity and monetization regimes, and how those responses may translate into macroeconomic outcomes, space demand and capital market dynamics. Notably, these AI scenarios do not exist in a vacuum; rather, their assumptions are integrated into our standard “House View” forecast process and therefore reflect our full set of macro views on key themes such as monetary policy, tariffs, the Middle East, etc. This macro view complements (and is consistent with) our ongoing monitoring of micro-property trends using our AI Impact Barometers and Sector Foresight series. Taken holistically, our AI Impact series provides a comprehensive set of data for stakeholders to monitor and strategize around how AI will influence property outcomes over near- and long-term time horizons.

History will remember 2025 as the year an old order ended and a new one began. Many of the foundational principles of economics, politics, and commerce that have shaped modern investing have been ripped up or rewritten. The post-war liberal world order – characterized by multilateral trade, international rule of law, and global stability – has officially given way to a more unpredictable, multi-polar reality. Within the U.S., long-standing structural mainstays like central bank independence and an expanding labor force are no longer a given. Even the value of a college degree is being questioned as artificial intelligence upends entire industries and occupations. If today’s rapid pace of change seems dizzying, grab a seat and hold on: it only accelerates from here. Predicting the future in this environment is difficult, but we still believe it is our task to try. Each year we make predictions on 10 major themes affecting the commercial real estate industry, attempting to identify the trends and data points that we believe are most relevant to real estate investors today. Last year we did pretty well, and you can see a full analysis of how we fared in our “2025 Scorecard” at the end of this piece. But first, download the full report for our top 10 predictions for 2026.

In March 2025, AEW published Searching for Gold, arguing that private commercial real estate credit offered a compelling structural advantage within private credit. Twelve months later, evolving market conditions have only sharpened that case. In Searching for Gold: Capital Preservation in the Next Phase of Private Credit, AEW revisits the thesis through today’s lens examining the mounting stress in U.S. direct lending, the implications for portfolio construction, and why asset-based lending against core real estate may enter this period from a fundamentally different position. This follow-on is not about revisiting first principles. It’s about what has changed—and what matters now for investors focused on downside protection, recovery outcomes, and resilience across the cycle.

Concerns around the commercial real estate “wall of maturities” have dominated investor discourse as nearly $900 billion of loans come due in 2026. Headlines often imply a systemic refinancing crisis—but recent outcomes and detailed market data tell a more nuanced story.Principal's latest research moves beyond broad narratives to assess refinancing risk across property types, markets, and origination vintages. Using a capital gap framework and market‑level dispersion analysis, Principal finds that refinancing stress is real, but highly concentrated—driven by a relatively small subset of markets and assets rather than a uniform breakdown across CRE. This research provides investors a clearer, data‑driven lens for navigating the upcoming maturity wave and supports more selective, informed capital allocation decisions.