U.S. metro areas continue to drive nation’s economic growth
Cities and metro regions continue to be the engines of U.S. economic growth, according to the U.S. Conference of Mayors (USCM) in its 18th annual report and forecast on U.S. Metro Economies.
n 2018, these areas were home to 85.9 percent of the nation's population and 91.1 percent of real gross domestic product (GDP). The influence and contribution of metro economies to U.S. economic growth increased for the fifth consecutive year.
Compared to 2017, metro regions' share of total employment increased to 88.1 percent, adding 2.1 million jobs or 94 percent of all U.S. job gains. The U.S. Metro/City share of U.S. total personal income, 89.3 percent, and wage income, 91.8 percent, also continued to increase. The full report, conducted by IHS Markit, can be found here, along with its key findings here.
U.S. Metro Performance in 2018
- Metropolitan areas dominated U.S. economic growth in 2018 and continue to drive the U.S. economy.
- They were home to 85.9 percent of the nation’s population, 91.1 percent of real gross domestic product (GDP).
- U.S. Metro share of total employment increased to 88.1 percent as metros added 2.1 million jobs, accounting for 94 percent of all U.S. job gains.
- The metro shares of U.S. total personal income, 89.3 percent, and wage income, 91.8 percent, also increased again in 2018.
- Many U.S. metros have larger economies than states. New York’s gross metropolitan product (GMP), the largest among metros at $1.85 trillion, exceeds the Gross State Product (GSP) of Texas, and Los Angeles's exceeds that of Florida, the fourth ranked state in GSP.
- The GMP of 38 U.S. metros each surpassed $100 billion in 2018, and we project that Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News will as well in 2019.
- Comparing metro economies to the nations of the world provides further evidence of the importance of U.S. metros as drivers of the global economy. New York's GMP would rank 10th among the nations of the world, ahead of Canada and Russia. Twelve of the world's 50 highest-producing economies are US metropolitan areas.
Employment and GDP Forecast
- As US unemployment falls to 3.5 percent in 2019, 75 metros (19.7 percent) will have rates less than 3 percent, and 252 (66.1 percent) will have unemployment rates under 4 percent. Real GMP growth will exceed 3 percent in 112 metros (29.4 percent) in 2019, but in only 18 metros in 2020 (4.7 percent).
- Real GDP growth is projected to slow from 2.9 percent in 2018 to 2.3 percent in 2019, 2.1 percent in 2020, and 1.9 percent in 2021.
- The downshift in GDP growth is expected to contribute to a continued slowing trend in employment gains. We forecast total US employment growth of 1.5 percent in 2019, down from 1.7 percent in 2018. In 2020, job gains will slow further, to 1.2 percent.
