Research - APRIL 27, 2016

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Timberland has worst first quarter since 2010

by Zoë Wolff

The NCREIF Timberland Index returned –0.26 percent in first quarter 2016, marking the first negative quarterly return since it recorded a –0.35 percent return in third quarter 2011 and the worst first quarter since a –0.25 percent return in 2010.

The negative quarter brought the rolling 12-month total return to 2.9 percent, down from 10.64 percent for the year ending first quarter 2015. The 12-month return was comprised of 0.44 percent appreciation and 2.45 percent EBITDDA.

The South was the only region with a positive quarterly return at 0.28 percent, making it the only region to see a positive return in each of the past five quarters. The Northwest region saw the biggest quarterly decline, returning nearly 6 percent in fourth quarter 2015 compared with just over –1 percent in the first quarter 2016.

Timberland market value per acre decreased to $1,796 after steady gains through 2015. The Northwest value per acre rose 1.57 per

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