Slowing economic growth reflected in property fundamentals

The U.S. economy appears to be slowing, given the deceleration of GDP growth in the third quarter, but despite the potential warning signs, a recession is unlikely in 2019, according to the REIS Quarterly Briefing webinar for third quarter 2019, which looked at property fundamentals in the third quarter, and also offered forecasts for real estate and economic performance in the coming year.

“We are at a downward trend for GDP growth,” said Victor Calanog, head of CRE economics at REIS. The third quarter had GDP growth of 1.9 percent, on an annual basis, down from 2.0 percent in the second quarter and 3.1 percent in the first quarter.

Calanog identified three hot topics for real estate: the impact of WeWork on the office market; the impact of rent control on the apartment market; and the impact of negative interest rates on capital markets.

Apartment vacancies have been flat all year, said Calanog. The sector had a vacancy rate of 4.7 percent in the third qua