Nuveen: Think U.S. cities Q4 2019 outlook

The U.S. economy is entering its 11th year of expansion, the longest since 1854. During second quarter 2019, the U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.1 percent and is on track to grow around 1.8 percent in third quarter 2019. Strong employment and solid household income growth should support consumer spending during the next two quarters of 2019.

Nuveen expects the U.S. economy to grow between 2.0 percent and 2.5 percent in 2019.

During the July 2019 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the Federal Reserve lowered the target range for federal funds rate to 2.0 percent to 2.25 percent. Should the U.S. economy enter a recession, the Federal Reserve will have little room to cut the federal funds rate significantly. The federal fund futures market is pricing in a 95.8 percent chance that the FOMC will continue to cut rates by the end of 2019, the consensus likelihood of a recession this year remains at 31 percent.

The key risks to U.S. economic gro