Estimating market cap rates remains challenging in an environment of constrained capital availability and very low sales volume, according to CBRE in its H1 2023 Cap Rate Survey, conducted in late May through early June 2023. The survey captures more than 3,000 cap rate estimates across more than 50 geographic markets to generate key insights from a wealth of data.
As inflation slowly declines and the Fed nears the end of its rate-hiking cycle, however, CBRE anticipates prices will generally stabilize toward the end of the year, with office values stabilizing in early 2024.
The survey indicates overall cap rates have increased more slowly compared with second half 2022. Highlights include:
Retail saw the smallest cap rate increase, aided by improved fundamentals, income growth and attractive pricing.
Multifamily cap rates’ upward expansion also slowed, but worries persist about near-term oversupply in some markets.
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