Asia Pacific: Tourism’s tailwind will keep blowing, but with less force

Tourism in Asia has held up well in recent months, but the sector’s recovery is likely to lose pace in the next few quarters, according to Oxford Economics.

China should continue to provide some impetus, but Oxford Economics expects the uplift to sequential GDP growth from tourists from elsewhere to moderate. This is one of the reasons that Asian GDP growth is expected to slow in the second half 2023.

Most recently, the rise in international arrivals has maintained pace due to the return of Chinese tourists and the continued strong growth in arrivals from elsewhere. Prospects from here will be driven by trends in both groups.

Arrivals from China will likely increase more quickly in second half than they did in first half in many countries, given easing outbound capacity constraints. There are risks to that view, though, given Chinese consumers appear to be