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Fallout shelter: How can investors account for geopolitical uncertainty and risk?
Last year saw two major events with global ramifications — the Brexit vote and the election of Donald Trump as president of the United States. These events ratcheted up the level of global uncertainty to unprecedented levels. Indeed, the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, a widely-respected measure, found global uncertainty hit an all-time high after the November 2016 US presidential election.
Today, it remains difficult to decipher the full ramifications of these events as they pertain to property investors. It is still unclear how Brexit will play out. The United Kingdom’s Conservative Party failed to maintain its majority in a snap June 2017 election, creating further uncertainty. It is also still unclear what progress the chaotic and volatile Trump administration will be able to make regarding pro-business tax cuts, infrastructure programmes, trade deals and other issues affecting institutional investors. At the same time, recent standoffs with North Korea have spawne
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