- January 1, 2015: Vol. 2, Number 1

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What Can We Expect in this Bold New Year?

by Ben Johnson

Prognostications abound as we enter the unknown realm of 2015, but who really knows, right?

This is my favorite time of year. Period. The end of every year brings with it the closing of one chapter in time and the promise of a new chapter yet to be written. All bets are off, or on, depending on how you look at it. Hope and promise springs eternal. It’s much like the age-old sports analogy, where every team starts their new season undefeated with a perfect record of 0-0.

This is also, by far, the most popular time of year for forecasts of all kinds. Of course, one of the major

challenges with any forecast is that it’s just that: at best an educated guess and at worst a shot in the

dark. How often do you see post-forecast tallies of their accuracy? Ultimately, I always ask myself how

many prognosticators accurately forecast the most recent mortgage crisis and the resulting downturn in

the global economy. Uh, not so many.

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