Publications

- January 1, 2019: Vol. 11, Number 1

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Tightening party: Will global capital glut blunt central bank tightening measures?

by Benjamin Cole

Perhaps the first caution flags were raised in September 2017, when the US Federal Reserve announced it would start to sell its US$4.5 trillion hoard of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities acquired during the Great Recession, also known as the global financial crisis.

In other words, the world’s most powerful central bank plans to add to competition for global capital, and possibly obtain higher interest rates. Moreover, the Fed has also guided financial markets to expect a series of quarter-point hikes in its key target interest rate through 2019, unless there is a significant slowdown in the US economy.

For denizens of the institutional real estate scene, especially in the Asia Pacific, the Federal Reserve’s resolve has been the topic of nearly daily commentary. Tales of capital flight to less-risky developed world markets have been nearly standard fare among gloomier Asian analysts, as well as forecasts of onerous US dollar–denominated debts stressing bo

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