- March 1, 2017: Vol. 11, Number 03

To read this full article you need to be subscribed to Institutional Real Estate Europe

Thinking fast and slow: Algorithms, forecasting and the future of work

by Geoffrey Dohrmann

The trouble with economic forecasting, in general, and real estate forecasting, in particular, is that it’s pretty good at telling you what’s likely to happen … until it isn’t. And it’s particularly bad at forecasting unanticipated turns in the road, which, of course, is one of the main reasons to attempt to forecast in the first place.

After having read Michael Lewis’s latest tome on the partnership between Nobel Prize–winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman and his research partner Amos Tversky (The Undoing Project), I’m now re-reading Daniel Kahneman’s Thinking, Fast and Slow. Kahneman’s thesis hinges around a model of the brain that divides the thought process into two “systems” — one relatively fast that operates by taking shortcuts (heuristics) based on intuition and past experience; the other that is more rational, more systematic and much slower. The problem, as Kahneman

Glossary, videos, podcasts, research in the Resource Center

Forgot your username or password?

Close your account?

Your account will be closed and all data will be permanently deleted and cannot be recovered. Are you sure?

We respect your privacy! Please give consent for processing data as described in our Privacy Policy