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- April 1, 2016; Vol. 3, Number 4

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The Endgame for Oil: Today

by Scott Minerd

In the fourth quarter of 2014, I asserted that a barrel of oil would average $45 during 2015 and 2016. Given the nature of the growing supply glut and OPEC’s unwillingness to cooperate on reducing output, I also projected that there was risk of a spike down to $25 per barrel before prices would stabilize. While far from consensus, my pessimism at the time now smacks of optimism. Today, looking at the market fundamentals in place, I believe we have reached a new point in the global energy story: The endgame in the decline of the price of oil.

Others are not so sure. As prices continue to fall, the market continues to be confronted with lower and lower predictions for the price of oil. For example, several bulge-bracket banks recently registered price targets of $20. Not to be outdone, Deutsche Bank suggested prices could fall to marginal cash costs for U.S. shale, possibly as low as $7 per barrel. Sentiment has turned so negative that a growing consensus of analysts

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