Publications

- May 1, 2018: Vol. 30, Number 5

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Sunny, but clouds on the horizon: Where the lodging market stands in 2018

by Russell Munn and Allison Faktor

In 2018, we view the lodging industry with a sense of risk awareness. The year 2017 proved to be the eighth consecutive year of occupancy growth, the longest since PKF International (now CBRE) began tracking the data in 1984. Fourth-quarter 2017 RevPAR growth exceeded expectations, with demand growth modestly exceeding increasing levels of supply.

Although 2017 ended on a positive note, more challenges are appearing for the industry as a whole in 2018. While we do not see any major catalyst for a significant downturn industrywide, our growth expectations have been tempered by a number of factors, primarily declining occupancies and rising supply growth. Furthermore, we do believe certain markets, particularly those that have experienced significant supply growth, may experience greater levels of distress.

The top 25 hotel markets often serve as a bellwether for the industry, and we are starting to see some challenges among those markets. As of year-end 2017, 13 of the

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