The longest business cycle in U.S. history ended abruptly in March 2020 as the public health crisis caused by COVID-19 spread around the world. Most global economies are now in severe recessions, and uncertainty abounds with regards to how deep and prolonged their downturns will be. According to the International Monetary Fund, the “Great Lockdown” recession would be the steepest — but not the longest — in almost a century, with the global contraction and subsequent recovery likely to be worse if virus infection levels persist or recur.

The current consensus scenario for the United States calls for production growth to resume later this year, assuming no second wave of COVID-19 infections or other major shock. Although it is expected the labor market recovery will be about twice as fast as the one that followed the Great Recession of 2008–2009, a lot of uncertainty surrounds this outlook.

What is already clear, however, is the crisis and its human and financi