As well as dominating the news headlines, the Russia-Ukraine crisis is also significantly influencing the economic, financial and commercial real estate outlook.

The conflict will certainly have significant adverse effects on both economies, but given Russia’s relatively small economic influence (it was the 11th largest economy in 2020, according to the IMF), the global impact is likely to be somewhat less severe. It is the secondary effects of exacerbating growing inflation, which is of more concern. We are seeing inflation accentuated in the cost of energy and food, but the true inflation figures have not yet been fully reflected across all goods prices.

A sharp economic slowdown is a key downside risk that should not, therefore, be ruled out. The duration, severity and international response to the conflict will ultimately dictate the extent of the economic impact.

This is particularly prescient in the United States, where some ind