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- January 1, 2018: Vol. 12, Number 1

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Time to ask questions: Real estate markets across Europe are biding time as possible disrupters lie ahead

by Sabina Kalyan

This time last year, the real estate investment community was reeling from the Brexit and Trump results; bond yields were rising, pricing in political risk, particularly around the French presidential election; and real estate cap rates were pushing to new historic lows, raising questions about whether they remained good value.

Fast forward a year and, on one reading, the world seems a more benign place. We have safely traversed the French election, and president Macron seems safely pro-EU and pro-reform. Despite the ongoing surge of populist minority parties, Merkel and Rutte remain in charge of Germany and the Netherlands, respectively (admittedly, the breakdown of coalition negotiations in Germany on 20 November may give rise to some concern about Merkel’s ability to continue). And even the Catalonia independence referendum hasn’t resulted in a spike in Spanish (as opposed to Catalonian) bond yields (see the “Yield spread for Spanish and Catalonian government bonds

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