Trade conflicts and trade-policy changes remain the most-cited threats to global economic growth, with 74 percent of executives surveyed by McKinsey & Co’s Economic Conditions Snapshot, September 2019 believing the global economy is worse now than it was six months ago — double what this sentiment was in September 2018. And their outlook on the global economy has grown more dismal as well, with 66 percent expecting economic conditions to worsen in the next six months (up from 45 percent in March 2019), with 67 percent anticipating a minimal, moderate or significant contraction in global economic growth rates over the same time period (up from 44 percent in March 2019).

With growth slowing in the United States — down to an estimated 1.9 percent in third quarter 2019 from 2.0 percent in the second quarter — the Federal Open Market Committee cut interest rates by 25 basis points on 30 October 2019, its third such cut this year. With the target federal funds