- December 1, 2015: Vol. 27, Number 11

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Casting a wide net

by Sheila Hopkins

According to the Pension Real Estate Association’s third quarter 2015 Consensus Forecast Survey of the NCREIF Property Index, industry participants expect real estate returns to trend down during the next few years, though the highest-returning sectors remain the same. Respondents expect all property types to return a total average of 11.5 percent by the end of 2015. Industrial looks the best, with an expected 12.4 percent return, followed by retail at 12.1 percent and office at 11.6 percent. Apartments trail the group, with a 10.1 percent expected annual return. Going into next year, annual expected returns drop to 8.5 percent and then drop further in 2017 to 7.2 percent. Optimism prevails in 2018, when overall expected returns rise slightly to 7.8 percent. Throughout the downward trend, industrial keeps its front-runner status, although expected returns fall to 9.1 percent and 7.7 percent in 2016 and 2017, respectively. Expected apartment returns continue to trail, fall

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