Despite the longest and most significant yield curve inversion in several decades, a declining money supply, declining inflation and several months of negative leading economic indicators, the long-awaited Federal Reserve–induced recession has yet to materialize. Bluerock said in its outlook 2024 report that it doesn’t believe recession risks have disappeared, but a strong labor market appears to be a material mitigating factor.
The firm does see inflation stabilizing at a lower rate (approximately 2.0 percent to 2.5 percent year-over-year) but above the deflationary environment that persisted in the post–global financial crisis era, and low enough to reduce the likelihood of any further monetary tightening