As the United States approaches a consequential election that could significantly influence climate policy, the path to rapid and permanent decarbonization of its power sector remains uncertain. On the surface, progress appears promising: Coal use continues to decline, installation of solar and wind capacity is expanding at record rates, and clean technologies are receiving substantial government funding and tax breaks through the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). However, gas combustion still meets more than 40 percent of U.S. electricity needs, and the country’s nuclear and hydroelectric power fleets will continue to age without substantial modernization or expansion.

Putting aside a potential shift in political leadership that could considerably slow (but would likely not reverse) the current trajectory, are the trends we see today enough to meet the administration’s goal of achieving net-zero emissions in electricity generation by 2035?

To shed some light on