The new reality: European real estate investors should take what they can get
Toward the end of November 2015, I attended the 25th IPD/IPF Property Investment Conference in Brighton and was struck by how some of the most sophisticated investors in the room were concerned with underwriting for rising bond yields, and thus real estate yields. Of course, nothing lasts forever, and one should beware of anyone touting a “new normal”, and we are certainly underwriting rising yields, too. But I do wonder whether, in the context of five-year forecasts, our industry is in danger of being too bearish on bonds, and therefore on real estate yields?
After all, we are now in a zero-interest rate policy environment that has lasted longer than World War Two. And even if the United States and the United Kingdom manage to get interest rates up off the floor over Christmas, I would be astounded if they managed to keep rates normalising at the pace currently predicted by consensus forecasts. Meanwhile, in the euro zone, the European Central Bank is poised to unleash a