Sam Korus, analyst, ARK Investment Management

Writing in an organization white paper about the future of electric vehicles: We expect global sales of electric vehicles to reach 17 million units by 2022, while agencies like the Energy Information Agency are forecasting only 2 million to 4 million units. Given the declining cost curve of lithium-ion battery cells, juxtaposed against the rising cost of internal combustion engines, electric vehicle sales growth is accelerating rapidly. Growth could be curbed by battery supply constraints in the next two to three years, but capital spending in this space should accelerate as battery supplies rise to meet the demand.

Larry Summers, former Treasury Secretary, Clinton administration

Speaking at a conference in Abu Dhabi, as reported by Bloomberg: The next U.S. recession could drag on longer than the previous one, which endured for 18 months, says Summers. He asserts that, with the economy in its ninth year of expansion, even if one took a hawkish view of upcoming Federal Reserve tightening, it would be some time before interest rates are high enough to allow them to again be reduced by the 500 basis points typical for a U.S. recession. “That suggests that in the next few years a recession will come and we will in a sense have already shot the monetary and fiscal policy cannons, and that suggests the next recession might be more protracted.”

Vivek Pandit and Toshan Tamhane senior partners, McKinsey & Co.

Writing in a report on impact investing: Impact investing may be forecast to grow to more than $300 billion by 2020, but even that would be a small fraction of the $2.9 trillion or so that will likely be managed by private-equity firms worldwide in 2020.

Our research in India — a test-bed of new impact-
investment ideas, where some 50 investors have poured $5.2 billion into projects since 2010 and investment is growing at a 14 percent annual clip — presents a different perspective. We tested four notions that have made mainstream investors shy. The findings suggest that as more companies and larger investors become acquainted with the true state of play, in India and elsewhere, they’ll find investment opportunities that align with their social and business aims.

Gregg Logan, managing director, RCLCO

Regarding where the homeownership rate is headed: The homeownership rate, after falling precipitously from 2005 to 2015, has begun gradually trending upward, from 63.8 percent in 2015 to the current 64.2 percent. Increases in the homeownership rate have a positive relationship with new-home demand, but data suggest that continued increases in the rate will be moderate at best.

The homeownership rate peaked in 2004 at 69.2 percent, fell dramatically with the burst of the housing bubble and the Great Recession, and finally bottomed out at 62.9 percent in 2016 — a level not seen since 1965. The latest homeownership rate (January 2018) of 64.2 percent is not much higher than Q4 2016 (63.7 percent) or Q3 2017 (63.9 percent), indicating that the rate is leveling out fairly close to the long-term average of 65 percent (1965 through 2017).

Joe Cahill, columnist, Crain’s Chicago Business

Writing about O’Hare Airport’s $8.5 billion terminal expansion plan: We’ve seen the results as O’Hare fell behind airports in other major cities. Once the nation’s busiest airport, O’Hare recently dropped to No. 3, behind Los Angeles International and Atlanta’s Hartsfield. And as O’Hare grew shabby with age, other airports launched multibillion-dollar makeovers, creating the capabilities and amenities international travelers have come to expect. International traffic at O’Hare lags New York’s Kennedy, LAX and Miami International by a wide margin.

Travelers also do well under the new deal. Fewer delays and easier connections will reduce wasted time and stress, while additional space for new carriers means more competition and lower fares. We’ve already seen the difference a few more competitors can make. Average fares at O’Hare declined 7.4 percent between 2014 and 2016, after a few discounters squeezed in. Imagine what they could do with more gates.

Kristina Swallow, president, American Society of Civil Engineers

Commenting on the Trump administration’s proposed infrastructure plan: The American Society of Civil Engineers has been warning of the safety and economic implications of our deteriorating infrastructure for the past 20 years. The Infrastructure Report Card has yet to give an overall grade higher than a D+. The Trump administration’s plan is a solid first step in having a real conversation about solutions for the nation’s aging infrastructure and a path to address our infrastructure investment deficit. Now it’s time for Congress to develop a bill that can pass with bipartisan support. If we are going to work on infrastructure, we should do this right and seize the opportunity to modernize our infrastructure and put us on a path for increased economic prosperity. This bill should increase federal investment including a long-term, sustainable fix to the Highway Trust Fund. Congress should not squander this opportunity for the American people, who are currently losing $3,400 a year in disposable income because of our outdated and inadequate infrastructure.

Byron Wien, vice chairman, Blackstone Advisory Partners

Writing about trouble ahead in equity markets: All last year, we were waiting for the 10 percent correction in the United States equity market that never came. By the fourth quarter, many investors were beginning to think stocks would never go down, especially with real GDP growth picking up to 3 percent in the U.S. and spreading to other economies globally. All this was reflected in the data for market enthusiasm. The indicator I look at most closely is the Ned Davis Crowd Sentiment, which I like because this tool is based partly on transaction activity. When the reading gets into the 70s, it’s warning that investor optimism is excessive. At the beginning of February, it was close to 80, where I had never seen it before.

Jarrod Upton, vice president of centralized services and guidance, United Capital Private Wealth

Writing about how blockchain technology is most easily explained: The best explanation I’ve heard comes from William Mougayar who wrote the book, The Business Blockchain. In the book he advises that we should think of blockchain as if it were Google Docs. “Before Google Docs, if you wanted to collaborate on a piece of writing with someone online you had to create a Microsoft Word document, send it to them, and then ask them to edit it. Then you had to wait until they made those changes, saved the document, and sent it back to you. Google Docs fixed that by making it possible for multiple people to view and edit a document at the same time.”

Blockchain does the same. It is a shared public database that allows everyone access to the same information simultaneously. With regard to digital currencies, it is a public ledger that records all cryptocurrency transactions, which are then instantly visible for all to see. It is a fully transparent platform. In addition, blockchain is decentralized, meaning it doesn’t rely on a single computer or server to function — it is hosted by millions of computers simultaneously. Also, because the blockchain database is not stored in one centralized location, it is impossible for it to be corrupted by hackers.