- July 1, 2015: Vol. 9, Number 7

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Pulling levers: Even lower, even longer, in even more places

by Timothy Bellman

Quantitative easing by the European Central Bank is likely to have global capital market implications, including real estate. We are now contemplating a period in which real estate yields/cap rates may well trend even lower in many markets in the short term.

Important changes to the macroeconomic and financial outlook have emerged over the past six months:

·      The ECB’s quantitative easing programme (QE) has changed the landscape of monetary policy worldwide as other countries try to adapt to the weakening euro and the global influence of very low (in some cases, negative) interest rates in Europe.

·      An accelerating US private-sector economy has delivered more than 250,000 net new jobs per month over much of the past year and brought the US unemployment rate down to 5.5 percent. This allows the US Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) at least to contemplate the first steps toward normalisation of policy interest rates at some stage in 2015.


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