Publications

- April 1, 2018: Vol. 5, Number 4

Impact investing for the ages: Did $60 billion ever do so much good for so many?

by Mike Consol

Five decades ago, South Korea had a per-capita GDP of $158, making it one the world’s poorest countries. That was before the United States, in the aftermath of the Korean War, pumped $60 billion into South Korea over a 30-year period and secured the nation’s physical security with a U.S. military garrison. Then there were trade and other forms of economic cooperation. Today, South Korea has a per-capita GDP of more than $27,000, as it has progressed into a post-industrial economy excelling at consumer electronics, biotechnology and robotics, among other lines of business. It has also moved from dictatorship to stable democracy.

All of this was accomplished by a nation without natural resources, a mostly illiterate population and degraded post-war infrastructure. Some would call this “nation building.” Others might call those expenditures on South Korea — as well as the post-World War II Marshall Plan and China’s current 70-country Belt and Road Initiative — impact investing.

Writing in The Washington Post, Fareed Zakaria observes that, in some sense, South Korea is the most successful nation in the world. Why? Zakaria reasons, “Achievement is about not just where you are but where you came from, the distance traveled. And by that definition, surely South Korea is the most successful country in the world.”

A NEW BENCHMARK, PLEASE

The global economy grew at a pace of nearly 4 percent between 1950 and 2008, and that has become a benchmark for many in government, especially in the United States where tax cuts and deregulation have been enacted to boost GDP growth to above 3 percent, at a minimum.

Ruchir Sharma, head of emerging markets and chief global strategist at Morgan Stanley, in a CNN interview with Zakaria, warned the 4 percent growth benchmark neglects the fact the 58-year period it’s based on was the only time in history the global economy grew with such avidity, fueled by a massive surge in population across the world. Between the vastly expanded workforce and increases in productivity, economic growth was goosed in a big way.

The problem is, population growth has moderated, and the global population is aging. Indeed, populations are shrinking in places such as Germany, Italy and Japan, and the global population is expected to peak at 8.7 billion in 2055 and start declining thereafter. What’s more, productivity has been stubbornly flat after decades of gains.

But although GDP is not growing like it used to, the World Bank calculated the 2017 global unemployment rate at only 5.8 percent.

Also concerning to Sharma is a U.S. stock market that for decades experienced an annual 10 percent correction. The maximum correction during 2017 was a mere 3 percent. “Unprecedented,” Sharma told CNN. “But this is not just the U.S.; across the world, the volatility that we saw in stock markets over the last 12 months … was the lowest in recorded history.”

This unusual period of calm, almost Zen-like as Sharma puts it, cannot last. He stopped short of predicting a Disney thrill ride looms, though implicit in his remarks.

THE AGE-OLD EXODUS

A rising number of Americans are turning expatriate in retirement. In 2016, more than 603,200 Social Security checks were mailed to retirees, their spouses and widows living abroad. They are moving as much for the adventure as for the lower cost of living many countries offer, evidenced by the favorite locations among overseas-bound retirees: Japan, Mexico, France, Thailand and Colombia.

But when you consider about 40 million U.S. households have reported having zero savings for retirement, Social Security becomes a critical safety net. Though meager by U.S. cost-of-living standards, the monthly Social Security check can be parlayed into a fairly extravagant lifestyle in locales such as Ecuador, Panama, Thailand, the Philippines and many other countries. Little wonder why the number of baby boomers retiring abroad is forecasted to rise by 11 percent in five years, according to the Social Security Administration.

Currently, Canada is home to the most U.S. retirees (106,322), followed by Japan (75,193), Mexico (49,583), Germany (38,454), the United Kingdom (35,409) and Italy (28,820).

THE PURSE STRINGS

The private wealth in the hands of women rose by $17 trillion in only five years, from $34 trillion to $51 trillion between 2010 and 2015, according to The Boston Consulting Group. The firm also found the share of overall private wealth controlled by women rose from 28 percent to 30 percent during the time period. They will control 32 percent of private wealth, or $72 trillion, by 2020 if the consulting firm’s projections are accurate.

 

Mike Consol (m.consol@irei.com) is editor of Real Assets Adviser. Follow him on Twitter @mikeconsol to read his latest postings.

Forgot your username or password?