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- December 1, 2013: Vol. 25, Number 11

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Forecast 2014: Threats loom but fundamentals suggest a continuing recovery for the new year

by Mike Consol

 

There is an African proverb that warns: “It is on the path you do not fear that the wild beast catches you.”

In the fast approaching run-up to 2014, the many paths that find their convergence in the titanic real estate industry are not particularly frightening at this time. Indeed, the consensus is that 2014 will be a year of continued recovery, perhaps even increasing momentum. Still, one investment manager gave voice to what all sources interviewed for this story seemed to be thinking — that their bright assessments come with the proviso that no “exogenous event” unexpectedly strikes and cripples the still-fledging recovery.

That external threat, that wild beast springing from the foliage, could be a calamitous trillion-dollar implosion of an exotic derivative hatched by some gun-slinging Masters of the Universe. A collapse of the Chinese economy so acute it sets off a downward spiral of falling dominos. Or even a d

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