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- October 1, 2016: Vol. 10, Number 09

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Dark portents: Is Brexit already influencing investor behaviour

by Richard Fleming

Two months on, and the United Kingdom’s Brexit vote is both still a talking point and on the back burner. Brexit was never going to be a here-today, gone-tomorrow thing.

Many civil servants in the European Union — certainly in the European Commission, which is seemingly fighting a turf war with the European Council and the European Parliament for con-trol of the EU’s Brexit negotiating team — will secretly have been pleased that the UK government did not disrupt their summer holiday plans by quickly invoking Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union and starting the formal two-year countdown to Brexit.

Instead, the new UK government has made clear its inten-tion to invoke Article 50 only when it is ready to start negotia-tions, probably early in 2017 but possibly as late as October 2017, to avoid impingeing on the national elections in France (in May 2017) and Germany (in September 2017). And it is arguable that two years is nowhere near long enough for the co

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